Modelling Regional Grazing Viability in Outback Australia Using Bayesian Livelihood Networks

CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The views expressed, except where stated otherwise, and the conclusions reached in this publication are those of the author(s) of the reporting pages, and not necessarily those of CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that any such scientific information and views may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly form using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. Executive Summary Outback Australia is characterised by multiple competing trajectories to regional social and economic viability, including a tension between agricultural production and other land uses, reflecting broader social and economic values. However, different regions of the outback experience this tension in different ways. In this context, the concept of sustainable livelihoods represents an important way of conceptualising the health and viability of outback regions and the people who live in them. This concept is receiving increased attention in Australia as a way to understand and address the linkages between social and ecological concerns in rural environments. The scope of the research undertaken and reported in this document is to identify and link key social and economic issues affecting the viability and sustainability of livelihoods in Outback regions. Specifically, the research focuses on enhancing our scientific understanding and filling knowledge gaps pertaining to issues of viability and community health in Outback Australia. Our research integrates cultural, social, and economic dimensions with existing ecological and biophysical understanding of these regions. It also improves existing understanding of the network of relationships among livelihood elements that affect natural resource management and regional viability in general. Specific research objectives include: investigating and exploring advanced methodological and modelling techniques such as probabilistic and social networks; linking qualitative with quantitative approaches for social-ecological complex systems; enhancing of the contribution of community-driven decision making on pathways to alternative futures and regional priorities; and understanding regional viability and sustainability of livelihood systems from …